Euro 2020 final: fans predictions for England vs Italy

YouGov asks fans in England and Italy: is it coming home or going to Rome?

Sunday night marks the most important moment in English football for over 50 years. The unbeaten English side will take on the equally impressive Italians at Wembley on Sunday to decide the outcome of a competition that has gripped both nations, with 74% of Italians and 66% of the English population interested in the final.

The big question, who do fans think is most likely to win?

Fans in both countries lean towards their home teams as the most likely to win. Two fifths of English Euro fans (41%) think the Three Lions stand the best chance, compared to 18% of Italians who agree the English are the likely victors.

Italian fans are more confident, with 53% backing their team as the likely winner, compared to 34% of English fans who consider Italy the favourites. Significant proportions of both English and Italian fans (25% and 28% respectively) are unsure which way the game will go.

While fans are not entirely confident their side can pull it off, there is little room for disloyalty in either camp. In Italy, 94% of those interested in the Euro 2020 final want Italy to win. In England a similar proportion (91%) are pining for an English victory at long last.

Desire for the win is strong across both nations even outside of those directly interested in Euro 2020, with some 83% of the general Italian public wanting to see their side win, compared to 72% of the English public.

Who is the rest of Europe cheering for?

There has been widespread discussion about who fans outside the England and Italy camps will be cheering on, with England’s auld rival the Scots pledging to back the Italians.

English fans are under no illusions that they will face significant opposition from other nations, with 49% of English Euro 2020 fans thinking other nations’ fans are more likely to cheer the Italians. Only 21% think others are more likely to back the Three Lions.

Opinion among Italian fans is similar, with 57% thinking they will have the support of other nations’ fans. Only 9% of Italians expect other fans to support the English. Similar proportions of fans in both nations (16% in England and 18% in Italy) doubt other fans care.

Will England face extra time, or the dreaded penalty shootout? And who is likely to score?

Eight in ten English fans (81%) predict another bout of extra time in the final for England, following their additional 30 minutes against Denmark, with feeling similar among Italian fans (71%). However, twice as many Italians (20%) doubt additional time is likely than English fans (10%).

Just over half of English fans (58%) think Southgate may face another bout of Euro penalties to decide the final - 25 years after his own missed penalty at Euro ’96. Italians feel similarly, with 63% predicting a dead heat coming down to penalties.

Despite thinking both extra time and penalties are a likely outcome, fans on both sides are confident their sides will score at least once – but also that the opposition will as well. Some nine in ten England Euro fans (90%) predict an English goal, including 42% who think it’s “very” likely. Over three quarters of Italian fans (77%) are confident the Three Lions will score as well, however only 29% think it’s “very likely” they will concede an English goal.

On the flip side, nine in ten fans in both countries (91% of English fans and 90% of Italians) think the Italians will score against England, despite Southgate’s squad conceding only once on their route the final.

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